About Me

I'm just someone struggling against my own inertia to be creative. My current favorite book is "Oh the places you'll go" by Dr. Seuss

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

What will the future of programming look like?

it will likely be a formal specification language. Instead of indicating the "how", as we do today, we'll specify the "what". So instead of saying step by step how to implement a certain algorithm, we'll specify what the requirements for our program are, and the compiler will work out the most efficient algorithm automatically.

The spec language may or may not be text based. I do not believe we will ever over come the problem of linguistic ambiguity. Even with a computer with an equal or greater intelligence to a human. Humans still misinterpret eachother. Computers will always take what we say painfully literally. this is an anavoidable, but not necessarily intuitively obvious result of various inviolable premises we hold about the operation of a computer. But higher level, more intuitive ways to state a problem unambiguously exist.

I don't think that the star trek depiction of people programming holodecks is entirely far off. It will seem more obvious and intuitive, but computers will still make catastrophic errors based around the ambiguity of natural language.

The reason I think it seems that humans can understand eachother easily in a way that computers can't, is due to shared culture, and our shared understanding that we don't always say what we mean (sympathy), and our ability to (only occasionally) continuously clarify and disambiguate our meaning. Our ability to communicate with eachother is largely the result of the common shape of our bodies, perceptions, and our ability to imagine ourselves as other people (an ability we can see more clearly when we look at those who partially lack this ability- Autistic people and Aspergers people). This enables us to understand in an extremely intimate way, why someone else may be making a specific pattern of noises with their vocal mechanisms, and gesturing in a particular way with their faces and bodies.

We only derive meaning from these patterns of behavior by imagining what we would be thinking if we were doing those things. Computers lack human bodies, vocal mechanisms, and faces, and consequently any ability to sympathise with a human. Any attempt to make a computer truly understand us without making the computer into a human itself, will be largely fruitless.

Despite all that, human comprehension doesn't work quite as well as most of us imagine it does. Consider the challenge each of us have as programmers in determining the shape of a program that client requires. It doesn't happen instantaneously. A successful program is the result of continuous revision over the course of many weeks months and years. That revision process would be very challenging (impossible) to replace with an automatic process. We can better automate the repetitive work, but we will never be able to artificially generate a perfect sympathy for our intent, artistic vision, and personal/ethical needs.

Banking on a future AI is a bet that I wouldn't make, even if it were possible. We should think just as hard about what we would lose in such a proposition, as much as we think about what we would gain.

5 comments:

David Broderick said...

> Instead of indicating the "how", as we do today, we'll specify the "what".

That's "Declarative Programming" and it's been around a while. Take a look at Prolog or SQL. The problem is that we often want to say more than just "Do X." For example, if you had a car that understood commands, you could tell it, "Drive to my office." But if it snows, you might have to say "Drive to my office but only using less icy roads."

What we need is an improvement in abstractions, so that we only have to specify as much as we need and no more. This is what is waiting to be accomplished, in my opinion.

Maksim Lin said...

Breton,
Your making the mistake of stretching analogies too far. Theres no point in talking about having a computer understand us "the way we understand each other" because as you yourself point out, humans only ever partially understand each other.
The only times we ever communicate between ourselves unambiguously is by using common notation to describe (series of) mathematical operations. And suprise, surprise, thats mostly what computers do.

As David points out its grossly insufficient in many case to declaratively specify what you want to happen, you how to specify how. Its actually the degree of autonomy that you grant the 'actor' to carry out your declared intent that is as important as the required result.

Breton Slivka said...

Maks: I believe you are disagreeing with a strawman. I actually fully agree with you. Natural language interfaces to computers will never be a "solved problem".

Breton Slivka said...

That is any computer language must be absolutely unambigious about what the intended result should accomplish. But implementation details, like whether to a write optimised architecture, or a read optimised architecture, can I believe be abstracted away to be implemented based on objective measurements and analysis by the computer.

Breton Slivka said...

Or at least, I can't figure out what it is you're objecting to. I can't find any analogies in what I originally wrote.